导读

2025年7月29日至30日，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）与美联储理事会在华盛顿召开联席会议，回顾货币政策战略、工具及沟通机制，评估金融市场动态、经济运行状况与体系脆弱性，并讨论未来政策立场。会议指出，《长期目标与货币政策战略声明》的修订工作已取得实质性进展。修订将纳入自2020年框架审查以来积累的经验，力求提高声明在不同经济环境下的适应性与稳健性，预计将在近期完成并发布。

在金融市场方面，公开市场账户经理回顾了两次会议之间的动态，指出政策利率预期路径和长期国债收益率整体保持稳定，受访者对实际GDP增长与通胀的中位预期变化不大。根据纽约联储操作台市场预期调查，联邦基金利率的最可能路径与6月调查一致，预计今年下半年有两次各25个基点的降息。名义国债收益率整体平稳，短期市场通胀补偿指标有所上行，长期通胀补偿指标增幅相对温和。风险资产价格上涨和信用利差收窄表明市场仍然认为美国经济具备韧性，但标普500指数估值继续高于长期均值，主要受投资者对大型科技公司在人工智能（AI）应用中获益的乐观预期推动。美元广义贸易加权指数继续贬值，速度低于前几次会议之间的阶段。货币市场整体运行平稳，无担保隔夜利率维持稳定。随着财政部一般账户（TGA）余额回升及国库券发行增加，预计隔夜逆回购工具（ON RRP）使用量将下降，准备金也将在系统公开市场账户（SOMA）投资组合缩减与TGA余额上升的共同作用下首次出现持续下降，美联储将密切监测准备金状况。常设回购便利（SRF）在维持货币市场平稳运行中的作用愈发突出，其在季度末的使用量达到创纪录的111亿美元。

关于当前经济形势，研究人员评估指出，美国上半年实际GDP温和增长，第二季度由负转正，但私人国内最终需求增速放缓，投资下降抵消了个人消费增长的提振作用。通胀水平仍高于目标，个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数同比上涨2.5%，核心PCE同比上涨2.7%，与去年同期大体持平。商品价格受关税上调推动，服务通胀则继续放缓。劳动力市场依然稳健，6月失业率为4.1%，较5月下降0.1个百分点，劳动参与率小幅下降，就业人口比率保持不变，非农就业继续增长，但私营部门新增岗位的步伐明显放缓。

关于当前金融稳定性，评估显示，系统性金融脆弱性仍然显著。股票市盈率位于历史高位，高收益公司债券利差收窄至低位，住房估值虽小幅回落但仍然偏高。居民债务占GDP比重降至近20年低点，家庭资产负债表保持稳健，但私人企业债务增速上升、利息覆盖率下降至历史低端，显示该领域脆弱性有所增强。国债市场的结构性问题仍然存在，交易商中介能力有限、对冲基金杠杆率提升以及市场深度不足等因素值得关注。非银行部门中，寿险公司增加高风险资产和私人信贷配置，资金错配与再融资风险持续增长，对冲基金杠杆率集中于大型基金。货币市场基金仍然面临赎回风险，私人流动性基金、离岸货币市场基金以及稳定币快速增长，但透明度较低。

关于经济前景，研究预计2025年至2027年美国实际GDP增长路径与6月预测保持大体一致。进口商品价格因关税上升的幅度预计低于此前预测，且发生时间更晚，同时金融环境略微宽松将对产出形成一定支撑。然而，低于预期的支出数据和净移民假设的下调抵消了部分积极因素，导致中长期潜在产出和就业增量有所降低。研究人员预计，劳动力市场将在2025年底前逐步走弱，失业率将升至高于自然失业率的水平，并持续维持至2027年。通胀预测略低于6月预期，关税在2025年和2026年预计将继续推升商品价格，但通胀将在2027年回落至2%的长期目标水平。研究人员指出，围绕经济前景的不确定性仍然偏高，主要源于经济政策变化，尤其是贸易政策调整的不确定性。总体来看，经济活动风险倾向下行，而通胀风险则偏向上行。

在与会者讨论中，观点则更为多元。多数与会者认为，总体通胀仍高于委员会2%的长期目标，近期数据显示关税的影响愈发明显，商品价格通胀上升，而服务价格通胀持续放缓。一些与会者指出，若不考虑关税效应，通胀水平已接近目标，但由于企业提前囤积库存、合同价格更新滞后、供应链调整等因素，更高关税对最终价格的全面传导仍需时间显现。多位与会者提到，企业预计将逐步将关税成本转嫁至消费者，而部分公司则通过重新谈判合同、调整生产流程、压缩利润率、控制工资增长或引入自动化等方式试图降低冲击。与会者一致强调保持长期通胀预期锚定的重要性，并指出若高关税持续时间较长，长期通胀预期可能面临脱锚风险。

劳动力市场方面，多数与会者指出，失业率保持低位，就业水平接近最大化估算值，但就业增长集中于少数行业，部分低收入群体和青年群体失业率有所上升。随着经济放缓，总需求疲软可能逐步传导至就业市场，部分进口商在高关税压力下也可能缩减雇佣。少数与会者认为，移民减少正压低潜在产出与岗位需求，因此产出与就业增长放缓并不必然意味着闲置产能增加。对于经济增长，较多与会者预计，下半年经济增长将继续保持低迷，住宅投资下降对经济形成拖累；也有少数观点认为，随着政策不确定性缓解、居民净资产上升及信用卡违约率保持稳定，经济活动仍可能获得一定支撑。部分与会者补充指出，财政政策、移民政策及关税政策方面的不确定性较此前有所缓解。

此外，会议还首次讨论了新兴金融创新议题。《美国稳定币国家创新引导与建立法案》（GENIUS Act）通过后，与会者认为支付型稳定币的使用预计将增加，这将有助于提升支付体系效率，并可能推高对国债等支持性资产的需求。但同时，稳定币的快速发展对银行体系、金融稳定及货币政策实施的潜在影响需要持续监测。部分与会者还提到，人工智能（AI）技术在就业市场的更广泛应用可能对劳动力结构带来冲击，也可能提升生产率，对未来经济活动和政策评估产生重要影响。

在政策决定上，委员会一致同意维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%至4.5%，继续推进资产负债表缩减，维持超额准备金利率（IORB）在4.4%，主要信贷利率在4.5%。少数委员倾向于降息25个基点，理由是剔除关税因素后通胀已接近目标，同时经济增速放缓、私营部门新增就业低迷且集中于少数行业，显示就业风险上升，但这一意见未获多数采纳。委员会强调，未来政策路径将依赖新增数据、经济前景和风险平衡，并将在必要时灵活调整，以确保实现最大就业与2%通胀目标。会议同时指出，若未来几个月通胀升幅高于预期或长期通胀预期显著上升，将需要维持更为紧缩的政策立场；相反，若通胀回落且长期预期保持锚定，同时劳动力市场出现显著疲软，则可能考虑更宽松的政策安排。

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 29–30, 2025

A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors on Tuesday, July 29, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, July 30, 2025, at 9:00 a.m.

Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communications

Participants continued their discussion related to the ongoing review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices (framework review). They observed that they had made important progress toward revising the Committee's Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy (consensus statement). Participants discussed potential revisions to the consensus statement that would incorporate lessons learned from economic developments since the 2020 framework review and would be designed to be robust across a wide range of economic conditions. Participants noted that the Committee was close to finalizing changes to the consensus statement and would do so in the near future.

Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations

The manager turned first to a review of financial market developments. Over the intermeeting period, the expected path of the policy rate and longer-term Treasury yields were little changed, equity prices increased, credit spreads narrowed, and the dollar depreciated slightly. The manager noted that markets continued to be attentive to news related to trade policy, though markets' reaction to incoming information on this topic was more restrained than in April and May. Against this backdrop, the manager reported that the Open Market Desk's Survey of Market Expectations (Desk survey) indicated that the median respondent's expectations regarding both real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation were roughly unchanged.

The manager turned next to policy rate expectations, which held steady over the intermeeting period, consistent with a relatively stable macroeconomic outlook. The median modal path of the federal funds rate, as given in the Desk survey, was unchanged from the corresponding path in the June survey and continued to indicate expectations of two 25 basis point rate cuts in the second half of this year. Market-based measures of policy rate expectations were also little changed and indicated expectations of one to two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year.

The manager then discussed developments in Treasury securities markets and market-based measures of inflation compensation. Nominal Treasury yields were little changed, on net, over the intermeeting period, consistent with the lack of appreciable changes in the macroeconomic outlook and in policy rate expectations. Perceived risks associated with trade policy developments contributed to an increase in near-term market measures of inflation compensation, while longer-horizon measures of inflation compensation rose more modestly.

The manager then turned to market pricing of risky assets. The increases in equity prices and narrowing of credit spreads suggested that markets assessed that the overall U.S. economy was remaining resilient; still, financial markets appeared to be making distinctions between individual corporations on the basis of the size and quality of their earnings. Valuations of the S&P 500 index continued to move above long-run average levels, mostly driven by optimism about the largest technology firms' scope to benefit from the further adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). However, valuations of an index of smaller-capitalization firms, although higher over the intermeeting period, remained below their historical averages.

Regarding foreign exchange developments, the manager noted that the broad trade-weighted dollar index had continued to depreciate since the previous FOMC meeting but at a slower pace than in recent intermeeting periods. At the same time, the manager noted that correlations between the dollar and its fundamental drivers had normalized recently. The available data continued to suggest relative stability in foreign holdings of U.S. assets.

The manager turned next to money markets. Unsecured overnight rates remained stable over the intermeeting period. Rates on Treasury repurchase agreements (repo) were somewhat higher than the low levels seen in the previous intermeeting period. The manager observed that two factors contributed to this slight increase: the normal upward pressure on money market rates associated with the June quarter