导读

北京时间3月19日凌晨（美东时间3月18日），美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在为期两天的货币政策会议结束后宣布，将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在3.50%至3.75%不变，并表示当前的货币政策立场有助于推动实现充分就业和2%的通胀目标。这一决定符合市场预期。鲍威尔还特别指出，中东局势对美国经济影响存在不确定性。然而，受美联储释放的“鹰派”信号以及中东局势升级的影响，美股三大指数全线大跌。

（图源自：环球市场播报）

演讲全文

Tran of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Statement

March 18, 2026

CHAIR POWELL. Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. The U.S. economy has been expanding at a solid pace. While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months, and inflation remains somewhat elevated.

鲍威尔主席：下午好，我和我的同事们始终坚定致力于实现充分就业和稳定物价这两大目标，以造福美国人民。美国经济一直保持着稳健的增长态势。尽管就业增长有所放缓，但近几个月失业率基本保持不变，通胀仍处于较高水平。

Today the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward our maximum employment and 2 percent inflation goals. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. We will remain attentive to risks to both sides of our dual mandate. I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.

今天，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）决定维持政策利率不变。我们认为当前的货币政策立场有助于推动实现充分就业和2%的通胀目标。中东局势的发展对美国经济的影响尚不确定。我们将持续关注对实现双重使命所构成的风险。在简要回顾经济形势之后，我将进一步说明货币政策。

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Consumer spending has been resilient, and business fixed investment has continued to expand. In contrast, activity in the housing sector has remained weak. In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects that real GDP will rise 2.4 percent this year and 2.3 percent next year, somewhat stronger than projected in December.

现有指标显示，经济活动保持稳健增长。消费支出保持坚挺，企业固定投资持续扩张。相较之下，住房部门的活动仍然疲软。在我们的经济预测摘要（SEP）中，与会者预计今年实际国内生产总值（GDP）增长的中位数为2.4%，明年为2.3%，这一预期略高于去年12月的预测。

In the labor market, the unemployment rate was 4.4 percent in February and has changed little since late last summer. Job gains have remained low. A good part of the slowing in the pace of job growth over the past year reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force, due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well. Other indicators, including job openings, layoffs, hiring, and nominal wage growth, generally show little change in recent months. In our SEP, the median projection of the unemployment rate is 4.4 percent at the end of this year and edges down thereafter.

在劳动力市场方面，二月份失业率为4.4%，自去年夏末以来变化不大。就业增长依然低迷。过去一年就业增速放缓的一个重要原因是劳动力增长的下降，这主要是由于移民减少和劳动力参与率下降，尽管劳动需求也明显减弱。其他指标，包括职位空缺、裁员、招聘以及名义工资增长，近几个月总体变化不大。在我们的经济预测摘要中，对今年年底的失业率中位预测为4.4%，之后将略有下降。

Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal. Estimates based on the Consumer Price Index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.8 percent over the 12 months ending in February and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 3.0 percent. These elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the goods sector, which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by supply disruptions in the Middle East. Most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal. The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation this year is 2.7 percent and 2.2 percent next year, a bit higher than projected in December.

通胀水平已从2022年年中的高位显著回落，但仍略高于我们2%的长期目标。基于消费者价格指数（CPI）和其他数据的估算显示，截至2月份的十二个月内，总体个人消费支出（PCE）价格上涨了2.8%；剔除波动较大的食品和能源类别后，核心PCE价格涨幅为3.0%。这些高企的读数主要反映了商品领域的通货膨胀，而这又受到了关税影响的推动。近几周来，短期通胀预期指标有所上升，这可能反映了由中东供应中断导致的油价大幅上涨。大多数长期预期指标仍与我们的2%通胀目标一致。在经济预测摘要中，对今年总体PCE通胀的中位预测为2.7%，明年为2.2%，略高于去年12月的预测。

Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. At today’s meeting, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.

我们的货币政策行动以促进美国人民充分就业和物价稳定的双重使命为指导。在今天的会议上，委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%。

From last September through December, we lowered our policy rate 3/4 percentage point, bringing it within a range of plausible estimates of neutral. This normalization of our policy stance should continue to help stabilize the labor market while allowing inflation to resume its downward trend toward 2 percent.

自去年9月至12月，我们将政策利率下调了四分之三个百分点，使其处于中性利率的合理估计范围内。这一政策立场的正常化应会继续有助于稳定劳动力市场，同时使通胀继续回落至2%的目标。

But the implications of events in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation, but it is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy. We will continue to monitor the risks to both sides of our mandate. We are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

然而，中东局势对美国经济的影响尚不明朗。短期内，能源价格上涨将推高整体通胀，但其对经济影响的范围和持续时间仍有待观察。我们将继续密切关注我们职责范围内各方面临的风险。并根据最新数据、前景变化以及风险平衡，以决定是否以及何时进一步调整政策利率。

In our SEP, FOMC participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path of the federal funds rate, under what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario for the economy. The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.4 percent at the end of this year and 3.1 percent at the end of nextyear, unchanged from December. As is always the case, these individual forecasts are subject to uncertainty, and they are not a Committee plan or decision. Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

在我们的经济预测摘要中，联邦公开市场委员会成员分别给出了他们认为在最可能情景下适当的联邦基金利率路径。中位预测显示，今年年底联邦基金利率的适当水平为3.4%，明年年底为3.1%，与去年十二月持平。和往常一样，这些个人预测存在不确定性，且他们并非委员会的计划或决定。货币政策并非是预先设定好的，我们将根据每次会议的情况做出决策。

To conclude, the Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy—maximum employment and stable prices. We remain committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing inflation sustainably to our 2 percent goal, and keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans. We at the Fed will continue to do our jobs with objectivity, integrity, and a deep commitment to serve the American people. Thank you. I look forward to your questions.

总之，美联储的货币政策目标有两个——充分就业和物价稳定。我们将继续致力于支持充分就业，将通胀率持续稳定在2%的目标水平，并牢牢锚定长期通胀预期。我们能否成功实现这些目标对所有美国人民都至关重要。美联储将继续秉持客观、公正的态度，以坚定的决心为美国人民服务。谢谢。我期待你们的提问。

来源：The Federal Reserve

选题：海外宏观金融选题组

编译：余骊安

监制：李婧怡

版面编辑｜宋童菲

责任编辑｜李锦璇、阎奕舟

主编｜朱霜霜